Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI…215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River,
South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast
expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at
a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over
the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the
southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off
the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of
63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

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